Survey Reveals: Nearly 30% of Americans Expect Trump’s Return to Slump The Real Estate Market

In a comprehensive survey examining the impact of Donald Trump’s return to office, 28.75% of Americans believe his policies will bring negative changes and challenges to the real estate market.

Drawing from the responses of 1,200 U.S. real estate professionals, our research reveals a complex landscape of expectations about how Trump’s proposed policies could reshape the American housing market in 2025 and beyond.

Why We Conducted This Study

The U.S. housing market stands at a critical juncture, with affordability concerns at historic levels and mortgage rates creating significant barriers to entry. According to recent reporting by AP News, first-time homebuyers accounted for just 24% of all home purchases between July 2023 and June 2024 – a historic low since 1981.

These challenges, combined with Trump’s campaign promises regarding tariffs, deregulation, and tax reforms, prompted us to investigate how Americans anticipate these policies affecting the real estate landscape.

Key Takeaways

Key Findings

60.57% of people believe building material costs will increase

The survey reveals widespread concern about construction costs, with 30.41% of respondents expecting significant increases and 30.16% expecting moderate increases in building material prices.

As reported by Fox Business, these concerns align with industry expert analysis. Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale notes that various regulations and fees “layer on costs that are ultimately borne by the consumer.“

28.5% of people expect securing affordable financing to be tougher

28.5% of people expect that securing financing will become much tougher, especially for first-time buyers, and have a negative take on the privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Almost half, 45% to be precise, expect more competitive rates and increased accessibility, due to the privatization.

34.66% of people believe demand in cities to decline

A notable 34.66% of respondents predict growing demand in suburban and rural areas as economic policies stimulate development outside major cities. 

This trend aligns with current market dynamics, as reported by CNBC, where experts suggest potential policy changes could act as a “catalyst” for housing in certain regions.

According to the survey, 27% of people believe housing affordability will decrease, especially for low- to mid-income buyers. 20.5% of the respondents believe that the market will segment due to fluctuation of demand across different regions.

23.5% of the people expect the rental market to shrink

The survey highlights 23.5% of people who believe that the rental market will shrink and devalue as favor shifts towards purchasing properties.

On the other hand, ⅓ or 33.33% of the people expect stability in the rental market, with some increase in demand. 27.58% of people also expect significant growth in the rental market as they expect home prices to increase.  

15.58% of the people expect there to be regional impacts in the rental market, with urban areas experiencing growth and suburban areas experiencing declines.

44.33% of people expect the affordable housing market to decline

44.33% of respondents believe affordable housing will be the most impacted sector due to rising construction costs and potentially reduced government support.

This concern reflects current market conditions, where, according to AP News, elevated mortgage rates and high prices have already kept homeownership out of reach for many first-time buyers.

18.58% expect luxury real estate to be the most affected, 22% expect it to be mid-range housing, and 15.08% expect commercial real estate to experience the most disruption.

36.25% of people believe Trump’s policies will hurt market recovery

36.25% express concern that inflation and tariffs could create additional economic pressure on the market recovery.

According to Yahoo Finance, the extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act could have mixed effects – potentially leaving middle-income families with lower net tax rates but also putting upward pressure on home prices.

However, 32.25% of people believe the market recovery will be helped significantly through Trump’s policies by stimulating economic growth and reducing regulations. 

On the lower end, 14.08% of people expect little impact from the policies but rather expect significant changes from broader economic factors. 17.41% of people believe that the policies will benefit some sectors while creating challenges in others.

46% of people believe Trump’s policies will reduce skilled labor

46% believe that skilled labor availability will be reduced, with 32.25% thinking there will be a shortage, and 13.75% of people thinking there will be a significant reduction in the pool of skilled labor.

However, 34.33% of people think there will be a minimal effect on the availability of skilled labor, as other sources will fill in the gap. 

19.66% of people on the other hand, believe that the pool of skilled labor will increase, as workers from different regions will be motivated.

51.41% of people think Trump’s policies will drive less foreign investment into US real estate

51.41% of people believe Trump’s policies will restrict the US real estate markets by reducing foreign investment in it.

27.08% of people believe real estate investments will decrease through Trump’s policies

27.08% of people believe that Trump’s policies will cause economic instability and increased uncertainty, leading to a decrease in real estate investments.

However, this question of Trump’s policies affecting real estate investment trends was heavily contested. 28.75% of people think the investments will increase due to demand stimulation, especially in suburban areas.

22.91% of people think the investments will shift to regions with the best tax benefits and deregulation opportunities, whereas 21.25% of people think real estate investments will remain stable with growth in commercial and luxury markets.

36.41% think urban areas will have lower demand

36.41% of people think urban areas will experience lower demand, and suburban areas will receive higher demand from buyers, as people will seek more affordable housing.

35.25% of people think that both suburban and urban markets will be affected similarly, as prices will rise and inventory will be limited. 

28.32% of people believe that the urban areas will see growth, with 17.91% expecting slower growth and 10.41% expecting to see more growth.

22.01% of people believe public perception will be negative and dampen market activity in 2025

22.01% of people think there will be a negative public perception, dampening market activity across sectors due to decreased investor sentiment.

27.83% of people believe this will not play a factor, as other market conditions and economic factors will be the main drivers of change. 

This is another question that had very small margins in the answers, as 28.41% believe positive perception will increase market activity, and 21.66% believe that public perception will vary between regions. 

Implications for the Real Estate Industry

The survey results suggest several key implications for the real estate industry:

Market Accessibility: 45% of people foresee more competitive rates due to privatization. The combination of potential policy changes could create a two-tiered market – one that benefits from tax reforms and deregulation, and another that struggles with affordability challenges.

Geographic Shifts: 34.66% of people anticipate movement toward suburban and rural areas which reshape development patterns and investment opportunities, potentially creating new growth corridors outside traditional urban centers.

Construction Industry Challenges: The expected impact of tariffs on building materials, combined with potential labor shortages, could significantly affect new housing supply and construction costs, as 44.33% of people expect the affordable housing market to decline and 46% of people believe that skilled labor will decrease.

Investment Landscape: The mixed expectations, with 51.41% of people believing Trump’s policies will drive reduced foreign investment into the US, suggest a period of potential volatility that could create both opportunities and challenges for investors.

Methodology

This study surveyed 1,200 U.S. real estate professionals. Respondents represented various:

• Income levels (from $25,000 to $150,000+ annually)
• Age groups (25 to 54+ years)

Survey Limitations

While comprehensive, this survey represents a snapshot of current expectations and sentiment. Market outcomes may vary based on actual policy implementation and broader economic factors beyond the scope of this research.

Conclusion

This survey was conducted in response to growing uncertainty about the future of the U.S. real estate market and the potential impact of proposed policy changes. The research aims to provide stakeholders with insights into market expectations and potential challenges ahead.